1.地球公转轨道离心率的变化
为一个约九万六千年的周期。其间地球的轨道皆在圆形与椭圆形之间变化
。轨道离心率越小(越接近圆形)时,四季变化相对较不明显,也不易有冰期的发生。反之,离心率越接
近1(但不等于)的轨道,四季明显,也较易产生冰期。
2.地球自转轴倾斜角度的变化
地球自转轴的倾斜角度介于21.5度到24.5度之间,以四万一千年为周期。
角度越大,高纬度地区因接受辐射的时间差异较大,易形成冰期。现今地球自转轴倾斜角度为23.44度,
且有减少的迹象。
3.地球的岁差
因地球自转轴的进动,造成一个大约两万六千年的周期。在远日点时,若北半球倾向太阳
,冬天温度将会相对较高;若因进动而导致南半球在远日点时倾向太阳,北半球的冬天将较为酷寒。又
因北半球陆地多,比热小,温度容易下降,而较容易形称冰期。
但,米兰科维奇循环并未完全解释气候的变化,特别是冰期的产生,因为冰期的发生显然小于十万年这
个周期。
上述三种因素会集合影响地球的气温变化,例:当地球在远日点且绕日运行的轨道离心率趋近于1,地球
自转轴倾斜角度为最大的24.5度,且南半球倾向太阳,将可能发生极低温的情形。此三个因素交错影响
着地球气温,每个因素不同的表现也让地球的气温更加不可预测。
Milankovitch cycles are the collective effect of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after Serbian civil engineer and mathematician Milutin Milankovi?. The eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit vary in several patterns, resulting in 100,000-year ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciation over the last few million years. The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time, the elliptical orbit rotates, more slowly, leading to a 21,000-year cycle between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit moves from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000-year cycle. Currently, this angle is 23.44 degrees and is decreasing.
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